Before I start, if you're reading this and you haven't read part one of this blog post, you can find it here: The EU Referendum: Part 1. I recommend you read part one first as this will then make a lot more sense!
I am going to pick up where I left off and talk about Vote Leave's "5 positive reasons to leave the EU". The two reasons I will discuss in this post are:
3. Build a fairer, safer immigration system
4. Free to trade with the whole world
However, I just wanted to dispel one myth surrounding "Take back control of our laws". The Vote Leave leaflet states "If we vote to remain... the European Courts will be in control of... big decisions like whether prisoners are allowed to vote". Admittedly, this is true. What Vote Leave do not tell you, however, is that if we vote to leave, the European Courts will still be in control of big decisions like whether prisoners are allowed to vote. The reason for this is that it was the European Court of Human Rights which said that we must allow prisoners to vote in the UK. This is because we are signed up to the European Convention on Human Rights, something which has nothing to do with the EU. I have discussed this in more detail in a previous blog post, which can be found here: Human Rights Act.
3. Build a fairer, safer immigration system
Interestingly, the Vote Leave campaign makes very few claims under this heading on their leaflet and it includes no specifics on how leaving the EU would make our immigration system fairer and safer. I suspect this is because most of the reasons they have implied - for the most part, and explicitly stated on occasion - over the course of the campaign have been based on no evidence, in spite of evidence to the contrary or are xenophobic. These claims include:
Firstly, new research from the London School of Economics (LSE) has found that immigration does not keep down wages or lead to an increase in unemployment amongst indigenous citizens; immigrants don't even disproportionately take new jobs.
So if they're not taking our jobs, they must be claiming millions of pounds in benefits, right? Well, some EU migrants do claim benefits; I can't deny that. However, research by UCL in 2014 found that migrants from the EU had paid £20bn more into the government coffers in tax over the first decade of this millennium than they had taken out in benefits.
So they don't take our jobs and pay more than their fair share of tax, but do we want criminals coming to our country? No. Are immigrants any more likely to be criminals than native Brits? No.
Speaking broadly, foreigners are no more likely to be criminals than native Brits; 13% of the prison population in the UK are foreigners compared to 13% of the population as a whole. However, it seems to be specifically Eastern Europeans being targeted by UKIP. So, it seems important for you to know that a fairly recent study has found that the crime rate amongst Eastern European immigrants is also the same as that amongst native Brits.
Finally, the latest tactic of Vote Leave is talking up the "threat" of Turkey joining the EU and I understand the concern. However, this is not because of the extra immigration this might bring, but because I wouldn't want a country with such an awful human rights record in the EU. Fortunately, Turkey cannot join the EU unless all 28 Member States and the European Parliament approve. Given that Germany are officially opposed to Turkey joining, and so are the largest party in the European Parliament, I can't see this happening anytime soon. Furthermore, the European Commission (made up of the 28 heads of state or government) have said no more countries will join the EU for at least 5 years.
It appears that immigration is good for our economy, and obviously there are other factors invloved but it is the economy that a maority of voters have said is the most important issue in this decision, and it is the easiest thing on which we can measure the impact. Whether you think immigrants are improving or damaging British culture is a matter of opinion. Personally, I like other Europeans and am happy to have them living here. In fact, a recent survey found that 55% of people with an opinion on this matter say that British culture is enriched by immigration.
It is also really important that people appreciate that the freedom of movement works two ways! Just as EU migrants come to the UK, British citizens are free to travel, live and work in other EU countries. We don't need visas to go on holiday in the EU, we don't need visas to live in the EU and we don't need visas to work in the EU. The most recent figure I have seen estimates that 1.26m Brits live elsewhere in the EU. In fact, my girlfriend currently lives and works in Germany and it was as easy for her to do so as it would have been for her to live and work in Manchester and at least she can understand Germans!
4. Free to trade with the whole world
The Vote Leave campaign claims that we will be better off outside the EU because we will be able to negotiate our own free trade deals with other countries around the world such as China and India as opposed to having to negotiate free trade deals as part of the EU.
However, being part of a bigger market, such as the EU, gives us much more bargaining power when it comes to negotiating free trade deals. Professor Ngaire Woods from Oxford University can explain this much better than I can, so I strongly recommend this video: Ngaire Woods on Brexit and Free Trade.
Secondly, the most important market for UK exports is the EU. About half of British exports are to the EU and this is of little surprise. The EU is the biggest single market in the world, and it's right on our doorstep. Therefore, if we were to have free trade with just one other economy, the EU would be the logical choice. Many people take for granted not only the fact that we can import from and export to the EU with no tariffs or duties, but other barriers to trade are removed by our membership of the single market. Being a part of the single market means there is a level playing field between businesses from all 28 Member States, which increases competitiveness and lowers prices. Being part of the single market means that the same rules and regulations for goods and services apply in all 28 Member States, which increases efficiency and lowers prices. Why would we want to sacrifice this?
Yes, it is possible to be part of the single market without being part of the EU - this is the case for Norway. However, Norway's contribution to the EU per capita is about 80% that of the contribution the UK makes per capita, yet Norway has no power to change any of the rules and regulations it is forced to implement to be part of the single market (which is over 90% of the rules and regulations implemented by full members of the EU). Furthermore, to be part of the single market, Norway still has to accept free movement of people, so if this is your main concern, staying in the single market isn't the answer.
Maybe being part of the free trade area but not the single market is the solution, as is the case for Switzerland. However, like Norway, Switzerland also pays into the EU budget (about 40% of the UK contribution per capita) and accepts free movement of people. Likewise, similar to Norway, if Switzerland wants to export into the EU's single market, it must accept most of the rules and regulations, which it has no control over. Furthermore, although there is one main free trade agreement which was signed in 1972, Switzerland and the EU have signed over 100 bilateral agreements on such things as the freedom of movement of people. The Swiss parliament has 15 committees solely responsible for negotiating deals with the EU.
Free trade deals are not easy to negotiate and as we can see from Switzerland, it would be an ongoing saga. The Canada-EU deal has taken 7 years so far to negotiate and it has still not been ratified. I'm not suggesting a UK-EU deal would take this long; I'm sure there would be shortcuts due to our former status as a member of the single market, but do we want to spend years negotiating a free-trade deal when we already have access to the single market?
During this time, we would have to pay Customs Duty on anything imported from the EU. On the other hand, businesses in the EU would have to pay Customs Duty on imports from the UK meaning businesses in other EU countries would suddenly look a lot more appealing than UK businesses, damaging our economy and risking jobs. A study by LSE estimates that British households save £350 per year on shopping as a result of being a member of the single market. If you remember from my first blog post, the cost per household of being a member of the EU was £300 per year. This is therefore an estimated saving of £50 per household per year by being in the EU just on this one factor alone!
This is where I am going to leave this post. I have one more "positive reason to leave" to criticise, which is "5. Vote Leave is the safer choice" so I intend to quickly deal with this in my next post before talking about some hidden benefits of the EU which people may find easier to relate to.
Again, if you do want me to send you a link to any evidence I have quoted, please comment below.
If you haven't registered to vote, you can do so here: Register To Vote! If you're not sure if/where you're registered, you can update all your details in the same place. It's really easy and there's no excuse! Make sure you are registered and if you won't be able to vote on the day, register for a postal vote. It's easy and important that you do so!
I am going to pick up where I left off and talk about Vote Leave's "5 positive reasons to leave the EU". The two reasons I will discuss in this post are:
3. Build a fairer, safer immigration system
4. Free to trade with the whole world
However, I just wanted to dispel one myth surrounding "Take back control of our laws". The Vote Leave leaflet states "If we vote to remain... the European Courts will be in control of... big decisions like whether prisoners are allowed to vote". Admittedly, this is true. What Vote Leave do not tell you, however, is that if we vote to leave, the European Courts will still be in control of big decisions like whether prisoners are allowed to vote. The reason for this is that it was the European Court of Human Rights which said that we must allow prisoners to vote in the UK. This is because we are signed up to the European Convention on Human Rights, something which has nothing to do with the EU. I have discussed this in more detail in a previous blog post, which can be found here: Human Rights Act.
3. Build a fairer, safer immigration system
Interestingly, the Vote Leave campaign makes very few claims under this heading on their leaflet and it includes no specifics on how leaving the EU would make our immigration system fairer and safer. I suspect this is because most of the reasons they have implied - for the most part, and explicitly stated on occasion - over the course of the campaign have been based on no evidence, in spite of evidence to the contrary or are xenophobic. These claims include:
- Immigrants take our jobs
- Immigrants take our benefits
- Immigrants are criminals
- Turkey will soon be joining the EU
Firstly, new research from the London School of Economics (LSE) has found that immigration does not keep down wages or lead to an increase in unemployment amongst indigenous citizens; immigrants don't even disproportionately take new jobs.
So if they're not taking our jobs, they must be claiming millions of pounds in benefits, right? Well, some EU migrants do claim benefits; I can't deny that. However, research by UCL in 2014 found that migrants from the EU had paid £20bn more into the government coffers in tax over the first decade of this millennium than they had taken out in benefits.
So they don't take our jobs and pay more than their fair share of tax, but do we want criminals coming to our country? No. Are immigrants any more likely to be criminals than native Brits? No.
Speaking broadly, foreigners are no more likely to be criminals than native Brits; 13% of the prison population in the UK are foreigners compared to 13% of the population as a whole. However, it seems to be specifically Eastern Europeans being targeted by UKIP. So, it seems important for you to know that a fairly recent study has found that the crime rate amongst Eastern European immigrants is also the same as that amongst native Brits.
Finally, the latest tactic of Vote Leave is talking up the "threat" of Turkey joining the EU and I understand the concern. However, this is not because of the extra immigration this might bring, but because I wouldn't want a country with such an awful human rights record in the EU. Fortunately, Turkey cannot join the EU unless all 28 Member States and the European Parliament approve. Given that Germany are officially opposed to Turkey joining, and so are the largest party in the European Parliament, I can't see this happening anytime soon. Furthermore, the European Commission (made up of the 28 heads of state or government) have said no more countries will join the EU for at least 5 years.
It appears that immigration is good for our economy, and obviously there are other factors invloved but it is the economy that a maority of voters have said is the most important issue in this decision, and it is the easiest thing on which we can measure the impact. Whether you think immigrants are improving or damaging British culture is a matter of opinion. Personally, I like other Europeans and am happy to have them living here. In fact, a recent survey found that 55% of people with an opinion on this matter say that British culture is enriched by immigration.
It is also really important that people appreciate that the freedom of movement works two ways! Just as EU migrants come to the UK, British citizens are free to travel, live and work in other EU countries. We don't need visas to go on holiday in the EU, we don't need visas to live in the EU and we don't need visas to work in the EU. The most recent figure I have seen estimates that 1.26m Brits live elsewhere in the EU. In fact, my girlfriend currently lives and works in Germany and it was as easy for her to do so as it would have been for her to live and work in Manchester and at least she can understand Germans!
4. Free to trade with the whole world
The Vote Leave campaign claims that we will be better off outside the EU because we will be able to negotiate our own free trade deals with other countries around the world such as China and India as opposed to having to negotiate free trade deals as part of the EU.
However, being part of a bigger market, such as the EU, gives us much more bargaining power when it comes to negotiating free trade deals. Professor Ngaire Woods from Oxford University can explain this much better than I can, so I strongly recommend this video: Ngaire Woods on Brexit and Free Trade.
Secondly, the most important market for UK exports is the EU. About half of British exports are to the EU and this is of little surprise. The EU is the biggest single market in the world, and it's right on our doorstep. Therefore, if we were to have free trade with just one other economy, the EU would be the logical choice. Many people take for granted not only the fact that we can import from and export to the EU with no tariffs or duties, but other barriers to trade are removed by our membership of the single market. Being a part of the single market means there is a level playing field between businesses from all 28 Member States, which increases competitiveness and lowers prices. Being part of the single market means that the same rules and regulations for goods and services apply in all 28 Member States, which increases efficiency and lowers prices. Why would we want to sacrifice this?
Yes, it is possible to be part of the single market without being part of the EU - this is the case for Norway. However, Norway's contribution to the EU per capita is about 80% that of the contribution the UK makes per capita, yet Norway has no power to change any of the rules and regulations it is forced to implement to be part of the single market (which is over 90% of the rules and regulations implemented by full members of the EU). Furthermore, to be part of the single market, Norway still has to accept free movement of people, so if this is your main concern, staying in the single market isn't the answer.
Maybe being part of the free trade area but not the single market is the solution, as is the case for Switzerland. However, like Norway, Switzerland also pays into the EU budget (about 40% of the UK contribution per capita) and accepts free movement of people. Likewise, similar to Norway, if Switzerland wants to export into the EU's single market, it must accept most of the rules and regulations, which it has no control over. Furthermore, although there is one main free trade agreement which was signed in 1972, Switzerland and the EU have signed over 100 bilateral agreements on such things as the freedom of movement of people. The Swiss parliament has 15 committees solely responsible for negotiating deals with the EU.
Free trade deals are not easy to negotiate and as we can see from Switzerland, it would be an ongoing saga. The Canada-EU deal has taken 7 years so far to negotiate and it has still not been ratified. I'm not suggesting a UK-EU deal would take this long; I'm sure there would be shortcuts due to our former status as a member of the single market, but do we want to spend years negotiating a free-trade deal when we already have access to the single market?
During this time, we would have to pay Customs Duty on anything imported from the EU. On the other hand, businesses in the EU would have to pay Customs Duty on imports from the UK meaning businesses in other EU countries would suddenly look a lot more appealing than UK businesses, damaging our economy and risking jobs. A study by LSE estimates that British households save £350 per year on shopping as a result of being a member of the single market. If you remember from my first blog post, the cost per household of being a member of the EU was £300 per year. This is therefore an estimated saving of £50 per household per year by being in the EU just on this one factor alone!
This is where I am going to leave this post. I have one more "positive reason to leave" to criticise, which is "5. Vote Leave is the safer choice" so I intend to quickly deal with this in my next post before talking about some hidden benefits of the EU which people may find easier to relate to.
Again, if you do want me to send you a link to any evidence I have quoted, please comment below.
If you haven't registered to vote, you can do so here: Register To Vote! If you're not sure if/where you're registered, you can update all your details in the same place. It's really easy and there's no excuse! Make sure you are registered and if you won't be able to vote on the day, register for a postal vote. It's easy and important that you do so!
